| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | South Florida | 9-19 | 1470.2 | +11.0 | 1481.2 | 25.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Buffalo | 33-20 | 1481.2 | +3.4 | 1484.6 | 61.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Florida Atlantic | 10-16 | 1484.6 | -24.3 | 1460.3 | 50.6% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Long Island University | 20-3 | 1460.3 | -19.2 | 1441.1 | 93.9% |
| 6 | Oct 7 2026 | W | New Mexico State | 22-3 | 1445.3 | +31.0 | 1476.2 | 55.7% |
| 7 | Oct 14 2026 | L | Jacksonville State | 24-27 | 1476.2 | +1.4 | 1477.6 | 46.1% |