| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Bethune-Cookman | 42-9 | 1336.9 | +39.3 | 1376.2 | 89.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Penn State | 0-34 | 1376.2 | +18.7 | 1394.9 | 2.0% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 38-28 | 1394.9 | +22.7 | 1417.6 | 50.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Delaware | 16-38 | 1417.6 | -74.8 | 1342.8 | 59.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | UConn | 10-51 | 1335.5 | -69.9 | 1265.6 | 21.6% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | W | Western Kentucky | 25-6 | 1265.4 | +78.8 | 1344.2 | 21.2% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 26-45 | 1344.2 | -42.4 | 1301.8 | 40.7% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | L | Missouri State | 21-28 | 1301.8 | -3.8 | 1298.0 | 38.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 56-30 | 1298.0 | +59.2 | 1357.2 | 52.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Liberty | 34-27 | 1357.2 | +18.6 | 1375.8 | 36.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 27-21 | 1375.8 | +17.0 | 1392.8 | 34.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 56-16 | 1392.8 | +51.2 | 1444.0 | 73.3% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | L | UTSA | 20-57 | 1437.7 | -46.8 | 1390.9 | 23.7% |